US adds 165,000 jobs in October, 2.5x forecast; Bitcoin holds near $75,800
Author: Crypffalo Research · 20:57 06/11/2026
October US nonfarm payrolls far beat the 65,000 estimate, unemployment slipped to 4.1% and wages rose 0.4%. The strong data keeps December Fed hike bets alive as bitcoin trades near $75,800.
The US economy added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, roughly 2.5 times the 65,000 economists expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Nov 6.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month. Bitcoin was little changed after the release, trading around $75,800, according to CoinDesk.
Key takeaways
- Payrolls: +165,000 in October versus a 65,000 forecast.
- Revisions: September raised to 60,000 from 29,000; August to 186,000 from 133,000.
- Unemployment: 4.1%, down from 4.2% in September and below forecasts.
- Wages: up 0.4% on the month to $38.00 an hour; up 3.1% year over year.
- Markets: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.894%; bitcoin near $75,800.
Inside the October jobs report
Hiring was led by professional and business services, which added 70,000 jobs. Health care added 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000, and manufacturing 19,000.
The revisions stood out just as much. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000, suggesting the labor market was not as weak as the initial prints implied.
Other figures from the report:
- Labor force participation: 61.9%, little changed.
- Average workweek: 34.4 hours, unchanged.
- Part-time for economic reasons: up 339,000 to 4.8 million.
- The jobless rate has held in a 4.1%–4.3% range since March.
Why it matters for the Fed
The Fed raised rates in September and held steady at its late-October meeting. Ahead of the data, markets priced about a 70% chance of another hike at the December meeting, down from roughly 95% a few weeks earlier, according to CoinDesk.
Most of that drop came from this week's selloff in tech and AI stocks. With hiring strong and wages running hotter than the 0.3% expected, the case for the Fed to back off looks weaker.
The 10-year Treasury yield reacted immediately, climbing 6.4 basis points to 4.894%. Nasdaq 100 futures, however, held a 1.5% gain after the previous session's steep drop.
What it means for crypto markets
Bitcoin took the data calmly, trading sideways near $75,800. Before the release, BTC had fallen about 5% in 24 hours, more than $1.27 billion in derivatives positions were liquidated (mostly longs), and spot bitcoin ETFs saw $430.2 million in net outflows on Nov 5.
- Bull case: solid hiring eases recession fears, tech stocks stabilize and risk assets like bitcoin recover alongside them.
- Risk case: faster wage growth keeps inflation pressure alive, yields and the dollar climb further, and traders lean harder into a December hike, weighing on crypto.
For the Fed, the jobs report is only one piece. Next week's CPI and PPI inflation data, and whether equities stabilize, are likely to carry more weight.
What to watch next
- October US CPI and PPI inflation data, due next week.
- The 10-year Treasury yield around 4.9% and the DXY dollar index.
- Spot bitcoin ETF flows after the recent run of outflows.
- The Fed's policy meeting on Dec 8–9.
- The November jobs report on Dec 4.
Follow the economic calendar and real-time liquidations for updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was surprising about the October US jobs report?
Payrolls rose 165,000, about 2.5 times the 65,000 forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. The prior two months were also revised up by a combined 84,000.
Why can strong jobs data weigh on bitcoin?
A robust labor market and faster wage growth give the Fed more reason to keep rates high or hike again. Higher rates tend to reduce the appeal of risk assets such as crypto.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Fed's final policy meeting of the year is on Dec 8–9. October CPI and PPI data will arrive before then.
*This content is for information only and is not financial advice.*
Tags: Fed, Jobs Report, Bitcoin, Macro
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