US Midterms: Democrats Favored to Sweep Congress as Bitcoin Holds Near $77,700
Author: Crypffalo Research · 09:56 04/11/2026
Votes are still being counted in the US midterms, with prediction markets heavily favoring a Democratic sweep of Congress. Bitcoin is holding near $77,700, but the CLARITY Act's odds look shakier.
Vote counting is underway in the Nov. 3 US midterm elections. As of late Tuesday evening ET, neither chamber of Congress had been called, but prediction markets are leaning heavily toward the Democrats.
Bitcoin has taken it in stride, trading near $77,700 after dipping to around $76,300 on election day. The crypto industry's main worry is the fate of the CLARITY market structure bill if control of Congress flips.
Key takeaways
- Results: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, the first major race to be called, per Reuters; control of both chambers may be hours away.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket puts a Democratic sweep near 85.5%; Kalshi earlier priced 94% for the House and 74% for the Senate.
- Bitcoin: Around $77,700, with ETH near $2,290; election-night moves have been roughly 0.3%.
- Macro: The dollar index slipped 0.2% to 101.7, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.919%.
- Policy: TD Cowen does not expect the CLARITY Act to pass over the next two years under a Democratic Congress.
Where the count stands
Heading into the vote, Republicans held the Senate 53-47 and a thin House majority. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control.
Live coverage from NBC News and CNBC showed Senate races in Texas, South Carolina and Kansas leaning Democratic. Those are early leans, not called results.
Prediction markets show the expectation more clearly:
- Polymarket: Democrats win both chambers at roughly 85.5%.
- Polymarket: Democratic House, Republican Senate at about 11.5%.
- Polymarket: Republicans keep both chambers at just 2.2%.
Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, and Georgia has a runoff rule. That means a few key seats could take days to settle.
Why crypto is watching closely
The CLARITY Act passed the House 294-134 in July 2025. But on Sept. 15 it failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50, well short of the 60 votes needed.
If Congress does not act before the new session convenes on Jan. 3, the bill dies and must be reintroduced. TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg said a Democratic-controlled Congress would likely investigate President Trump's crypto ties, which is why he does not expect CLARITY to pass over the next two years.
A Democratic Senate would likely put crypto skeptic Sen. Elizabeth Warren in line to chair the Banking Committee. Still, Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, one of the negotiators, reportedly sees a deal as possible before the new Congress is seated.
Crypto groups spent more than $200 million on this cycle, according to CNBC. The results will show how much of that bought lasting support on Capitol Hill.
What it means for crypto markets
Bitcoin is already under pressure from the Binance hack, spot ETF outflows ($643 million on Oct. 30 and $399 million on Nov. 2, per SoSoValue) and fearful sentiment. With the outcome largely priced in by prediction markets, the overnight price reaction has been small.
- Bull case: A softer dollar and lower yields could support risk assets, and a split Congress would leave room for a narrower crypto deal.
- Risk case: A Democratic sweep raises the odds that CLARITY stalls and that Trump-linked crypto projects face tougher scrutiny; analysts are watching support at $76,264-$76,476, in line with the 200-day EMA.
US stock futures fell on speculation of a big Democratic win, CNBC reported. If that weakness carries into the US session, crypto is unlikely to be spared.
What to watch next
- Official calls on House and Senate control over the coming hours and days.
- Friday, Nov. 6: the October US jobs report.
- Nov. 10: October CPI.
- Dec. 9: the next Fed decision, with rates currently at 3.75%-4.00%.
- Any movement on CLARITY before the Jan. 3 deadline. See the economic calendar and real-time liquidations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have the US midterm results been called?
Not yet. Some races, such as Jon Ossoff's Georgia Senate seat, have been called, but control of both chambers is still pending.
Why is a Democratic win seen as negative for crypto?
The CLARITY Act needs Senate support, and analysts expect a new Democratic Congress to prioritize investigations and oversight over crypto-friendly legislation.
How did Bitcoin react on election night?
Mildly, moving about 0.3% around $77,700, since a Democratic lean was already priced in by prediction markets.
*This content is for information only and is not financial advice.*
Tags: US Midterms, Bitcoin, CLARITY Act, Macro
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